Once again, in English please?

Like you, I'm trying to figure out what's going to happen with the business. I already know what it is now (bad), and what everyone's forecast is (terrible).

What REALLY matters is the next page in the Big Book, and to find that out I sought out the Oracle of the Market--the One I have always turned to in times of uncertainty--The all-seeing, all knowing seer.

"Your Wisdomness, what is next for our business?" I asked. He likes to be called "Your Wisdomness"--it reinforces what we already know, that he's Smart.

"The medium term is aligned for a paradigm shift", he began. "Negative growth is forecast for most legacy players. A great deal of emotional leakage is present and will need a prolonged period of client-focused, best-in-class blamestorming to sort it all out".

My head had that feeling I get when I eat ice cream too fast. "Could you elaborate?" was about the only thing I could get out quickly.

"Of course," he said. "The market is being disintermediated by outliers that are pushing the envelope of the possible. Solutioning is at a premium, as is synergistic ideation that creates a user-centric, future-proof experience for all partners. But of course, everyone knows that."

I could feel my pupils dilating--I almost passed out from the lack of oxygen but pressed onwards. "Anything else I should know about?" fell from my lips like lead balloons.

He moved in closer, and lowered his voice. "Well, everyone needs to upskill themselves. Increase your bandwidth to get to the bleeding edge. Repurpose the organization to gain mindshare from all stakeholders. Encourage co-opetition and cross-purposing to close strategic gaps."

By now my field of vision was narrowing. I managed to blurt out "Thanks, oh great one" before I fell and hit my head on the floor.

Before I passed out I heard his parting admonition: "Follow my multidisciplinary approach to attain an alpha position and truly see the business from the 60,000 foot, 360-degree perspective. And never forget--shit happens"


Pete

My favorite phrase

I was a consultant once--and to be an effective consultant you need to master a single phrase that serves you in almost every situation. That phrase is:

"It depends".

While I'm no longer a consultant (a great definition of which is "someone who takes your watch and tells you what time it is"), "It depends" is still very relevant in my world and probably yours too.

The current environment is so dynamic, so multi-faceted, so unsure that broad-based answers no longer cut it. I get asked questions like this: "so, how's business?"

"It depends". If you're talking about the service award sector, which is pretty stable, business is "not bad". If you're talking about the incentive travel business, the answer is "awful".

Or "how's the entire market?"

"It depends". The electronics business is probably pretty good. Housewares? Better than "good". Luggage? Not so much.

It's 9/11 all over again. Incentive travel stops--dead. "Bling" goes into recession and travel goods (like luggage) goes into depression. "Home and Hearth" stuff like cappuccino makers and high-end food processors are popular. Big-screen TVs and GPS units get selected. Briefcases? Nah.

So while we ruminate over the state of the business it's important to know that "It depends" is fully in play. I spoke to a leading reseller and they told me that 2009 will be fabulous because of what was put in place in 2008. 2010? They're much more bearish on that. "It depends".



Pete

Do my eyes deceive me?

Look--over there. Just past the charred wreckage. No, not THERE--that's what's left of the promotional products business with pharmaceutical companies. Look to the left--do you see it?

It's the faintest glimmer of light. From this distance it's hard to make it out--it might be another train (one of several that have hit us recently), or it might be a UFO (Unidentified Fiscal Obstruction). But if I squint my eyes just right it has the appearance of--dare I say it--optimism?

In this climate any news that's not depressing is viewed as positive, but there are the slightest signs that things are getting better. Now let's be upfront about this--"better" is not "good" by any definition. But "better" is a whole lot more exciting than "the same" because "the same" has been pretty bad.

Everyone has been "on hold" for the past three or four months. We're waiting for something--for Saint Barack to single-handedly save the economy, for any sign that the worst is over and we're heading back up. But I'm hearing more confidence in the conversations I'm having with clients. Not much, you understand, but I'll take a little for the moment.

The statistics are bad but not as bad as it might seem. For my part I plan to keep squinting and seeing something positive--Lord knows I've had enough Negative Visions to keep me awake for some time...


Pete