Gracias, Merci, Danke...

It's the day after Thanksgiving, and I'm recovering from Thursday. And with a spare minute (since the business world has ground to a halt until Monday), I thought I'd share the things I'm thankful for. It's a long list, so consider this the "Twitter" version (we used to call this the "Cliff's Notes" version but nobody uses Cliff's Notes anymore...)

• I'm thankful that the business still exists. In the darkest moments of 2009 I wasn't sure we'd get to a point where we could say the business was going to survive. No, it's not as good as it was in 2008, or 2007, but it's still here.
  
• I'm thankful that SOME corporations view rewarding and recognizing their employees as an Investment instead of a Cost. This should serve them well when (as opposed to if) the economy turns.
• I'm thankful that the manufacturer's rep firms have gutted out the worst of the storm. Without them, most brands would have a very difficult time getting their products to the market.
• I'm thankful for Coach's return to the business, limited as it is at the moment. They cast a positive glow on the rest of the market. They left, then they returned. It's a good thing.
• I'm thankful for the very smart people who advise me on the state of the market. I learn much from them and it allows me to have a better view of the entire business. They have already helped me understand what 2011 might bring.
• And finally, I'm thankful that we are able to ply our trade despite the worst economic conditions in 75 years. As we emerge from the fog of the past 24 months we will learn that the market still has considerable opportunity for those with new ideas and attitudes.

OK, gotta go--the pumpkin pie I didn't get to yesterday is calling me. I know how Odysseus felt lashed to the mast...


Pete

The Under comes in...

And for those of you scoring at home--please note it was 3 years, 8 months, and 3 days. Those who bet the "under" on 5 years are winners--please take your tickets to the cashier's booth.

1344 days between the day Coach exited the business, and the day they returned to the business. "Returned" is a qualified word, because they are returning in a materially different way than they exited. Fewer accounts. WAY fewer.

But they're returning to the channel and I'm happy to see it. It adds credibility to the major resellers in our business that a brand like Coach would leave the market but then return after a time. Everyone that plays in the channel benefits from prestige brands like Coach making an effort to sell our customers.

Make no mistake--this is not March 2007 again, and it's unlikely that it will ever be that way. The days of selling hundreds of accounts in the Corporate world will not return because the Brand Police cannot accept the possible consequences of trans-shipped product. Period.

The customer list is small--I've heard three clients only so far. Perhaps there will be more, but probably no more than a dozen or so at first. As the Coach people get more comfortable with those, perhaps others will be added. But the heady days of the mid-aughts will not return anytime soon.

Coach's stock took a hit when they announced their exit from the Corporate market. Our channel wasn't much in terms of the topline, but the business was profitable and brand-enhancing for the most part. A few bad apples caused the brand to reconsider their presence, and we were all the poorer for it.

So, 1344 days pass. Then, a new day dawns. It's Morning in America, or at least the Incentive Business...


Pete

We came, we saw, we...talked

Last weekend was Special Markets Dialogues weekend. A chance to convene a panel of market leaders with the express purpose of trying to figure out where on Earth this crazy business is going.

We will issue a "Manifesto" (our joking term for the summary document we release to the trade press) sometime in the next week or so. But without violating the Cone of Silence that overhangs the entire proceeding, here are some takeaways from the event:

• If you got this far, you're a survivor. Many of your competitors and/or cohorts didn't make it. But just because you're still standing doesn't mean you're home free. Not by a long shot.
  
• There is "cautious optimism" amongst the panelists. Not "rampant optimism", mind you, but the "cautious" kind. The past few months have seen increases in quoting and closing activity, but this is not the Great Recovery we've all been praying for.
• The ground will continue to move. Amazon's re-entry into the Loyalty space is far from over, and there may be more entrants.
  
• Our market continues to be threatened by entities that aren't even aiming at us. Like the pharmaceutical companies, which laid waste to a large chunk of the promotional products business, Congress and other trade groups are making decisions that cause us to be "collateral damage". "Collateral" it may be, but the blood is real, and ours.

And this doesn't even begin to discuss the Horror Show that is the supply chain, or the continued decline of the Chicago Motivation Show (although those who were there found it energizing), or the real pain being felt by our representatives (none of whom is having a very good time of it).

I'll get into that later. For the moment let's just say we left Myrtle Beach with a sense that while still a rough row to hoe, we may be entering a new phase that will be kinder to us. And THAT'S change we can believe in...


Pete